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PhD Shortage Predictions, 1988

Up to Scientist Shortages?

The famous NSF forecast of a shortage of 675,000 S&E workers in the 1990s.



Congress Presses Probe Into NSF Prediction Of Scientist Shortage
by Jeffrey Mervis, The Scientist, October 28, 1991. "A House panel questions methodology, motivation behind agency's warning that a huge shortfall threatens the work force"
The Numbers Game and Graduate Education
by Richard Atkinson, former AAAS President. "Despite problems in a number of fields, therefore, it is disturbing to hear some people make the blanket statement that we are training too many Ph.D.'s. Certainly physicists and humanists will resonate with that notion. But to jump to the conclusion that the nation faces an across-the-board oversupply of scientists and engineers is inaccurate and misleading."
Engineering Shortages and Shortfalls: Myths and Realities
Alan Fechter, The Bridge, Fall 1990. An analysis of the NSF's late 80's shortfall projections by the head of the National Research Council's Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel.
Phony NSF Paper Affects Legislation
An annotated bibliography debunking the NSF's shortfall predictions from the American Engineering Association.
Pundits Foresee Stiffer Job Competition In Academia
by Jeffrey Mervis, The Scientist, May 13, 1991. "Countering the widespread predictions of a future scientist shortage, several analysts predict a crisis in quality, not quantity"
Analysts Debunk Idea Of Scientist Shortage, Citing Defects In Current Economic Models
by Jeffrey Mervis, The Scientist, April 29, 1991. "Experts question whether predictions of a shortfall can be made if no one is capable of gauging future supply and demand"