IT Worker Shortage, 1998

The ITAA has recently projected a shortfall of 1.3 million information technology workers over the next ten years. The Department of Commerce has unveiled a plan to address the problem. A big opportunity for scientists or another "Myth" in the making?

Immigration

Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage: by Prof. Norman Matloff, UC Davis. "'Vaporware.' That is the term used in the software industry when a firm announces a new product which actually does not exist. Extending the term a bit, one can say that the industry's latest vaporware is the claim of a desperate software labor shortage. The fact is that there is no such shortage."
Colleges not training enough workers to fill jobs, say tech firms: Aug 13, 1998, Seattle Times "Washington state's higher-education system is failing to produce enough people to program, design or run computer systems, according to educators and industry officials....What irritates local information-technology companies is that there is no lack of people who want to work in these businesses. There just aren't enough classes available to provide the skills that potential workers need."
Now Hiring! If You're Young: Norman Matloff, New York Times Op-Ed, January 26, 1998. "The real story here is more profound: the rampant age discrimination in the industry. High-tech companies save money by shunning most midcareer programmers and focusing their hiring on new or recent college graduates, who are cheaper and can work lots of overtime."
The Labor Market for Information Technology Workers: Testimony before the Subcommittee on Immigration Committee on the Judiciary United States Senate, Dr. Robert I. Lerman, Director, Human Resources Policy enter, Urban Institute and Professor of Economics, American University, February 25, 1998.
S.798 - A bill to establish a Commission on the IT Technology Worker Shortage: The text of a bill introduced by Senator Warner of Virginia on May 22, 1997. Additional details may be obtained by using "Thomas" with S.798 as a search term. Senator Warner's remarks on page s5015 are illuminating. There is no mention of existing IT professionals as stakeholders. (Requres Adobe Acrobat)
No shortage of computer scientists: Norman Matloff, letter to the editor, San Jose Mercury News, August 17, 1997. "Industry officials have admitted a tendency to shun mid-career people in favor of hiring new graduates. Given this, what incentive is there for a young university student interested in long-term career prospects to major in engineering or computer science?"
America's New Deficit: the Shortage of Information Technology Workers: The Department of Commerce report (requires Adobe Acrobat)
The IT Labor Shortage: Fact or Fiction?: By Richard Ellis, Dr. Dobbs Journal, April, 2000. "A hard look at the factors contributing to the so-called high-tech labor shortage"
'Cheep' Labor: by Mike McGraw, Mother Jones Interactive: "Programs place Americans low in the pecking order"
Clinton likely to veto immigration bill: 7/30/98 "The Clinton administration is expected to veto high-tech immigration legislation if, as expected, Congress approves a compromise bill that waters down worker protection provisions favored by U.S. engineering groups."
NPR's Science Friday discusses the IT Worker Shortage: Ira Flatow, longtime host of NPR's award - winning "Science Friday" program examines employer claims of a "looming shortage" of Information Technology professionals during the first hour of the program on February 27, 1998. This program is available from the RealAudio archives. Copies of tapes and transcripts are available for a nominal fee from NPR. Geoff Davis, creator of www.Phds.org, is one of the panelists.
How and Why Government, Universities, and Industry Create Domestic Labor Shortages of Scientists and High-Tech Workers: by Eric Weinstein, Project on the Economics of Advanced Training, Harvard University / National Bureau for Economic Research. Working Draft.
IEEE-USA Undertakes Its Own IT Head Count: "IEEE-USA has long been suspicious of shortage forecasts. In the 1980s, the National Science Foundation projected a shortfall of some 200,000 engineers and scientists, but the methodology of that forecast was roundly criticized and later dismissed. Less than five years later, engineering endured its largest wave of layoffs in years as the defense industry and the commercial world downsized."
Hiring From Within: Mother Jones, July/August, 1998. "High rates of legal immigration provide cheap, nonunion labor for big business, a steady stream of domestic servants for the overclass, and lower wages for American workers. So why do so many liberals support them? Michael Lind makes a provocative case for immigration reform."
Is There a Shortage of High-Tech Workers?: "When it comes to providing graduate education for engineers and creating a competitive and growing high-tech sector, the United States is the envy of the world. Now we hear that the future of our high-tech industries depends upon the hiring of foreign engineers and scientists. Do we, in fact, have a shortage of engineers and scientists?"
Study: Immigrants Boon for Tech: by Joanna Glasner, Wired News, July 2, 1999. "New research showing that about a quarter of Silicon Valley technology companies are headed by immigrants may add oomph to the industry's efforts to raise the immigration cap for foreign technology workers."
A Fresh Approach to Immigration: by Alan Fechter (CPST) and Michael Teitelbaum (Sloan Foundation). Excerpt: "In the late 1980s, NSF's prediction of massive, looming shortfalls of scientists and engineers in the 1990s was one factor motivating large increases in employment-based ceilings for skilled workers-from 54,000 to 140,000 per year-embodied in the Immigration Act of 1990. When the forecasts of shortfalls proved dramatically wrong and the job market for doctoral scientists and engineers began to turn sour, concern shifted from future shortfall to current glut. ... [Efforts] to moderate the large increases adopted in 1990 were blocked during the 104th Congress. ... This outcome reflects the built-in inertia of public policy as well as the political and financial superiority of those advocating no change, from organized ethnic and religious groups to organizations representing research universities and certain employers such as Microsoft and Intel."
National IT Worker Shortage Convocation Launches Quest for Systematic Solutions: ITAA press release.
The scourge of Silicon Valley: Salon, October 19, 2000. "Anti-immigration crusader Norman Matloff says he's fighting for the rights of tech workers everywhere."
Are tech workers in short supply?: CNet News, September 28, 2000. "It is common for companies across America to complain about a shortage of information technology workers. The reality, however, is that there is no widespread lack of workers, but a shortfall in the ability of companies to recruit IT employees, to assess their talent and to make their jobs rewarding enough to keep them from quitting, claims a study by Wharton management professor Peter Cappelli."
Emerging Trends in the Information Technology Job Market: How Should the Public and Private Sectors Respond?: Testimony before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Committee on Education and the Workforce, United States House of Representatives, Dr. Robert I. Lerman, Director, Human Resources Policy Center, Urban Institute and Professor of Economics, American University, April 23, 1998.
High Tech Migrant Labor: by Alexander Nguyen, The American Prospect, 12/20/99 "Guest workers: They're not just picking vegetables anymore. A new class of 'migrant workers' is taking shape in America's Silicon Valley and other technology centers. These immigrants are not sneaking over U.S. bordersthey arrive by jet from India, the Philippines, China, and Taiwan to take jobs in computer programming, software design, and information services."
Congress Debates Tech Visas: by Lakshmi Chaudhry and Declan McCullagh, Wired News, August 6, 1999. "The top lobbyist for the AFL-CIO told Congress on Thursday there's no need to let additional workers into the country -- no matter what Silicon Valley firms say about a worker shortage. 'It is premature to even consider another increase in the number of H-1B visas,' Smith told a House Immigration subcommittee."
The Information Technology Association of America
H.R. 3273 - A proposal to write into law that there is a shortage of IT professionals: This bill, introduced by Representative Moran of Virginia on February 25, 1998 is one of five bills in the range H.R. 3270 to H.R. 3274 that benefit employers. H.R. 3273 is a model of indirectness, since the effects of the proposed legislation are not disclosed. Please refer to the "Permanent Labor Certification" link for clarification. It is similar to the 1976 Eilberg Amendment, described in the Pandora Project link.
High-Tech Melting Pot: by Monica Mehta, Mother Jones, August 4, 1998. "Silicon Valley's foreign professionals assimilate with a smile, and a little 'intercultural training.'"
U.S. Department of Labor - Foreign Labor Certifications: The U.S. Department of Labor has been given the task of implementing a system to permit immigration of workers to the U.S. while protecting U.S. worker's wages and working conditions. Refer to the link provided under the heading "Permanent Labor Certification" - Part 656, Subpart A to see a clear and concise description of the purpose and scope of Part 656. Use this material to understand the proposed legislation H.R. 3273 and S.798.
H-1B visa count drops sharply in February: CNET News.com, March 20, 2001. "The number of H-1B visas requested during the month of February fell sharply compared with earlier months, suggesting the downturn in the U.S. economy may be affecting the demand for foreign workers."
Tech's Major Decline: College Students Turning Away From Bits and Bytes, by Ellen McCarthy, Washington Post, Tuesday, August 27, 2002, Page E01. "The tech industry's financial problems are enough to bankrupt the dreams of some fair-weather students. But now there's another consequence of the tech bust: Enrollment growth in undergraduate computer science departments has come to a halt."
Arthur Hu's Pro-Immigration Answer Page: A lengthy rebuttal to Norm Matloff's arguments.
Has demand for foreign workers fallen?: CNET News.com, March 16, 2001. "The Immigration and Naturalization Service will tell Congress on Monday how many H-1B visas have been issued this fiscal year--shedding light on whether the economic downturn has reduced the once red-hot demand for foreign workers."
Huddled Masses Yearning to Write Java: By Karl Schoenberger, The Industry Standard, May 1, 2000. "With unusual bipartisan consensus, Congress and Clinton are expected this month to approve a bill that would ease limits on the immigration of high-tech workers. But many charge that the U.S. labor shortage is a fiction exploited by business to the detriment of American programmers."
Hill pushes tech firms toward education: CNET News.com, March 19, 2001. "Congress believes that too many high-tech visas have been issued and expects the private sector to do something about it."
Visa Compromise Reached: "Congress has reached a compromise that would allow the high-tech industry to import nearly twice as many foreign programmers and engineers over the next three years. The compromise, announced Friday, would force companies crying worker shortage to swear that they didn't lay off an American worker simply to hire a foreign worker, and attest that they will not funnel skilled immigrants to other firms that use them to replace laid-off workers."
Brain drain: by Sarita Sarvate, Salon, January 10, 2000. "A bill that would give visas to high-tech foreign students will exploit the greatest minds of the third world for the sake of American industry."
The Supply of Information Technology Workers in the United States: A study from the Computing Research Association "to improve the understanding of the supply of and demand for information technology (IT) workers in the United States, and the surrounding contextual issues." Contains many sensible recommendations.
What IT Labor What IT Labor Shortage? Redefining the IT in: by Catherine Beise and Martha Myers, Ubiquity, April 11, 2000.
American Engineering Association: Link includes information on immigration, trade and a few other items with several related links listed.
New H-1B Bill FAQ: A brief overview of the current (September 2000) H1-B bill before Congress.
Clinton Outlines High-Tech Worker Visa Goals: New York Times, May 12, 2000. "Racing to keep up with a booming economy, President Clinton on Thursday proposed an increase of more than 85 percent in the number of skilled foreign workers who could be admitted to the United States to fill job openings in high-technology industries."
Debate over Scarcity and Skills of IT Workers: Knowledge@Emory, August, 2002. "Software coder Soujanya Dasigi has a hard time believing the latest report on the technology job market from the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA). According to the trade groups May study, 'Bouncing Back: Jobs, Skills and the Continuing Demand for IT Workers,' U.S. companies will be short nearly 600,000 qualified IT professionals over the next 12 months. Dasigi lost her job at software firm Compuware in April 2001, and has fruitlessly applied to between 200 and 250 jobs since then. To the San Jose, Calif. resident, life in the IT trenches and often-grim economic news suggest the ITAA is way off base."
Foreign Worker Debate Heats Up: by Lakshmi Chaudhry, Wired News, May 15, 2000. "Some industry players are asking Congress to give foreign workers green cards instead of increasing the number of employment visas, but immigration advocates aren't cheering."
Congress Backs Big Increase in Visas for Skilled Workers: New York Times, October 4, 2000. "Congress today passed a bill to increase significantly the number of visas for educated foreigners who temporarily fill specialized American jobs, largely in the high-technology industry. Rapid approval by President Clinton appears virtually certain."
Report Indicates Decrease in High-Tech Degrees: by Pamela Mendels, New York Times, May 5, 1999.

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IT Worker Shortage, 1998