Scientist Shortages?

In 1987 the National Science Foundation projected a shortfall of 675,000 scientists and engineers between 1990 and 2005. The shortage has yet to appear, but that has not stopped similar dire projections from reappearing in 1998 (the IT worker shortage) and 2002 to the present.

IT Worker Shortage, 1998	S&E PhD Shortage Predictions, 2002
PhD Shortage Predictions, 1988

How and Why Government, Universities, and Industry Create Domestic Labor Shortages of Scientists and High-Tech Workers: by Eric Weinstein, Project on the Economics of Advanced Training, Harvard University / National Bureau for Economic Research. Working Draft.
Doctorate surplus in science, engineering is ongoing, researchers say: "Universities in the United States are producing about 25 percent more doctorates in science and engineering fields than the U.S. economy can absorb, according to a new [1995] study by researchers at the Rand Corp. and Stanford`s Institute for Higher Education Research."
Is There a Science Crisis? Maybe Not: The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 9, 2004. "Leaders warn of a labor shortage in the U.S., but indicators point to an oversupply."
Looking (In Vain) For the Geek Shortage: "The sky is falling! The sky is falling! For years high-tech corporations have warned of a shortage of scientists and engineers. [See Why Americans Don’t Study Science—It Doesn’t Pay] The latest (alleged) evidence: the cap of 65,000 H-1b visas for fiscal 2006 was reached in August, 14 months prior to the fiscal year in which the visas would be used."
Is There a Shortage of High-Tech Workers?: "When it comes to providing graduate education for engineers and creating a competitive and growing high-tech sector, the United States is the envy of the world. Now we hear that the future of our high-tech industries depends upon the hiring of foreign engineers and scientists. Do we, in fact, have a shortage of engineers and scientists?"
Bills to Train More Scientists Go Down to the Wire: The Chronicle, 9/8/2006. "Congress mulls modest increases in spending, but much of the money may go to schools, not colleges"
The Ph.D. Glut Revisited: by Gary North. "In the worldwide suckers' market, gamblers are the only people who are slower to learn than young adults with masters' degrees. Bright graduate students possess a pair of non-marketable skills: the ability to write term papers and the ability to take academic exams. They are also economic illiterates and incurably naïve. So, they become the trusting victims of the professorial class." Reviewed in the NY Times, Feb 5, 2006.
Ph.D.s in America on the decline: "The number of Americans earning doctoral degrees has declined in recent years, renewing worries that the United States is losing its dominance in Ph.D.-level education to rapidly developing nations like China and India. The National Center for Education Statistics recently reported that 44,160 Ph.D.s were awarded by U.S. universities in 2002, down from the high-water mark of 46,010 doctorates awarded in 1998."
Why Americans Don't Study Science: It Doesn't Pay: "There they go again. Claiming they can’t find enough skilled Americans, the high-tech industry has browbeaten Congress into allowing them to bring in another 20,000 foreign workers. The little-noticed legislation, inserted into an appropriations bill required for the government to continue normal operations, expands the number of foreign workers eligible for H-1b visas from 65,000 to 85,000 in 2005."
If We Need Immigrant PhDs, Why Are American PhDs Poor And Unemployed?: "There they go again. Another report on the (allegedly) vital role of immigrants in the U.S. science and engineering workforce—implicitly bemoaning the competence of native-born Americans."
Another Study Raps Ph.D. Overproduction: by Douglas Steinberg, The Scientist, October 2, 2000. NRC panel recommends a no-growth strategy
Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate: Placing the United States on a Level Playing Field with China and India: "The effect of the dynamics of engineering outsourcing on the global economy is a discussion of keen interest in both business and public circles. Varying, inconsistent reporting of problematic engineering graduation data has been used to fuel fears tha tAmerica is losing its technological edge. Typical articles have stated that in 2004 the United States graduated roughly 70,000 undergraduate engineers, while China graduated 600,000 and India 350,000. Our study has determined that these are inappropriate comparisons."
Separating Science Policy from Science Fiction: Remarks by Neal Lane, former NSF Director, on controlling the supply of Ph.D.s. "Jaime Oaxaca of the National Science Board offers the insight that saying we have an oversupply of people trained in science and engineering is equivalent to saying we have an undersupply of ignorance. We should ever be so lucky."
The Science Education Myth: BusinessWeek, October 26, 2007. "Forget the conventional wisdom. U.S. schools are turning out more capable science and engineering grads than the job market can support."
Does Globalization of the Scientific/Engineering Workforce Threaten U.S. Economic Leadership? by Richard Freeman: Richard Freeman, NBER Working Paper, 2005. "This paper develops four propositions that show that changes in the global job market for science and engineering (S&E) workers are eroding US dominance in S&E, which diminishes comparative advantage in high tech production and creates problems for American industry and workers"
The New Challenge to America's Prosperity: Findings from the Innovation Index: A 1999 report from the Council on Competitiveness raises concerns about declining Ph.D. production in the sciences. An interesting read. (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader 4.0)

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