Labor Market for PhDs

Statistics and analyses of the labor market for Ph.D.s in a broad range of subjects.

Enrollment Trends	Labor Market Trends
Graduate Outcome Data

The Real Science Crisis: Bleak Prospects for Young Researchers: Chronicle of Higher Education , September 2007. "[F]or many of today's graduate students, the future could not look much bleaker. They see long periods of training, a shortage of academic jobs, and intense competition for research grants looming ahead of them. 'They get a sense that this is a really frustrating career path,' says Thomas R. Insel, director of the National Institute of Mental Health. So although the operating assumption among many academic leaders is that the nation needs more scientists, some of brightest students in the country are demoralized and bypassing scientific careers."
Graduate School and the Job Market: A Survey of Young Geoscientists: How bad IS the job market in the geosciences? The authors of this interesting article suggest that the more important questions is: "How bad do you THINK it is?" They present the results of a survey administered to over 500 geoscientists who were asked for their perceptions about the reseach job market, graduate school, and their preparation in science. The authors note that perceptions of the job market are highly correlated to specific sub-disciplines of science - broad aggregate numbers of either job supply or demand may be irrelevent to an individual's chances of landing a job.
Mathematicians and the Market: The stats are all for mathematicians, but the trends and ideas apply to all the sciences. A comprehensive overview of the job market for mathematicians, plus ideas on steps toward a solution. From the November 1997 issue of the Notices of the AMS.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook: Projections for prospects in a wide variety of careers.
How and Why Government, Universities, and Industry Create Domestic Labor Shortages of Scientists and High-Tech Workers: by Eric Weinstein, Project on the Economics of Advanced Training, Harvard University / National Bureau for Economic Research. Working Draft.
Nose to the Grindstone: "A new National Science Foundation report indicates that scientists and engineers in education work harder than those in industry and much harder than their counterparts in the government."
Addressing the Nation's Changing Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists (2000): The National Academy's report on the need for more biomedical and behavioral science Ph.D.s. In brief, no increase in Ph.D. production is seen as needed.
The Big Payoff: Educational Attainment and Synthetic Estimates of Work-Life Earnings: US Census, July, 2002. "This report illustrates the economic value of an education, that is, the added value of a high school diploma or college degree. It explores the relationship between educational attainment and earnings and demonstrates how the relationship has changed over the last 25 years. Additionally, it provides, by level of education, synthetic estimates of average total earnings adults are likely to accumulate over the course of their working lives."
S&E Ph.D. Unemployment Trends: Cause for Alarm?: 1997 NSF Issue Brief. "Over the last two decades, the Ph.D. unemployment rate has remained below the general population rate and has exhibited less fluctuation than the rates for other educational levels."
1998 Annual Survey of the Mathematical Sciences (First Report): Faculty salary and unemployment numbers for Ph.D.s in the mathematical sciences from the Notices of the AMS. PDF file (requires Adobe Acrobat)
The Computing Research Association's Taulbee Survey: "A principal source of information on the production and employment of Ph.D.s and faculty in computer science and computer engineering in North America. Includes data on degree production, student enrollment and faculty with gender and ethnic breakdowns and salary information.
What's Happening in the Labor Market for Recent Science and Engineering Ph.D. Recipients?: 1997 NSF issue brief revealing low unemployment rates for Ph.D.s but high "Involuntary Out of Field" rates.
Coping with Conflicting Data: The Employment Status of Recent Science and Engineering Ph.D.s: Peter D. Syverson, Council of Graduate Schools. "[P]rofessional societies are reporting double-digit unemployment figures at the same time that the NSF is reporting rates of less than 3 percent.... how can there be such a discrepancy?"
Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Employment Projections
Science and Engineering Indicators, 1998: A report by the National Science Board on indicators of the state of science and engineering in the United States.
Declining Student Numbers Worry German Mathematics Departments: by Allyn Jackson, Notices of the AMS, March, 2000. "In the United States, shrinking student numbers in undergraduate mathematics programs have become commonplace. Figures from the AMS-IMS-MAA Annual Survey, showing that the number of juniors and seniors majoring in mathematics declined by about 20 percent between 1992 and 1998, will elicit little surprise. What is less well known in the U.S. is that similar declines are occurring elsewhere." Requires Adobe Acrobat.
Latest Employment Data for Physicists from the AIP: "These reports highlight the qualitative changes and gradual improvements in the initial employment of recent degree recipients. They document the salaries earned by experienced physicists across employment sectors and degree levels, the size of the academic workforce as well as the availability of openings and profiles of new hires."
Open Letter to Harold Varmus, Director of the NIH: by Barry Hardy. An open letter describing problems with the NIH's system for funding young investigators.
For Job Hunters in Academe, 1999 Offers Signs of an Upturn: by Denise K. Manger, The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 29, 1999. "Flip through the employment ads of almost any professional journal these days, and you'll find something academe hasn't seen much of in years: tenure-track jobs."
Virtual Center for Research on Graduate Education: A web site devoted to research on graduate education, containing information both on enrollment and degree trends and on policy issues in graduate education.
Education and Employment of Biological and Medical Scientists: Data from National Surveys: FASEB, 2007. "The figures in the following presentation are offered as an introduction to the major sources of nationally representative data on education and employment of biological and medical scientists. We hope that this compilation of graphs will foster an informed discussion of this topic. We do not seek to be exhaustive in our presentation of data, but rather to offer a starting point from which interested parties can pursue additional analyses in greater depth and detail."
Is There a Ph.D. Glut? Is that the Right Question?: Charlotte Kuh, NRC. "I would say that the right question is not: Is there a Ph.D. glut and what should we do about it? Rather, the question is broader: how are research and education to be accomplished in a time of sharply constricted external resources and how do we treat students fairly in these times?"
Education and Employment Trends in Physics: Excellent collection of statistics on employment and enrollments in physics and astronomy.
Graduate Enrollment in Science and Engineering Continued to Decline in 1998: Overall S&E graduate enrollment fell for the 5th consecutive year, and is down 7% from the 1993 peak. Part-time students and white males account for most of the decline. Judging from first-year enrollment figures, this trend will contiue for some time.
Changing Career Paths of Young Scholars in the United States: Example of the Life Sciences: An interesting presentation by economist Paula Stephan showing a restructuring of careers for young life scientists.
Job outlook brightens for earth science graduates: "Nearly two-thirds of 1999 Ph.D. graduates in earth and space sciences took permanent jobs upon graduation, a sharp increase as compared with 1998."
Inside Higher Ed :: The Shrinking Tenure Track: "Between 2001 and 2003, higher education saw healthy increases in the number of faculty jobs, which grew to 1,173,556 from 1,113,183. But if you’re wondering why those 60,000 new jobs didn’t ease your job search, it may be because the growth was greatest for part-time positions."
Of Semantics And The Scientist Population:Are There Too Many Of Us?: by Elie Shneour. The Scientist Vol. 9, #18. "...science has flourished in times of abundance and in times of penury, provided only that the climate for science remained favorable, as it was in Europe in the late 19th century and in the United States for the three decades 1940 to 1970. Alas, these days are over for the foreseeable future, and far more alarming than the diminishing resources is the climate of skepticism over, illiteracy about, and hostility to science that pervades modern society today. Unless and until this environment improves, the future of science and the future well-being and flowering of our civilization will remain at risk."
A Short Circuit for US Engineering Careers: Terry Costlow, Christian Science Monitor, December 26, 2002. "Dissatisfaction with the field is growing rapidly. Layoffs, the influx of foreign workers, and offshore outsourcing of jobs have caused the pocket-protector set to either leave the profession in large numbers or seek new careers after being laid off. And if that isn't enough to make engineers' neckties curl in Dilbert-style desperation, there's the nature of the work itself. In an era when high-tech gear becomes obsolete almost as fast as dairy products, many in the field feel they must advance at a steady pace or risk being cast aside."
New Database Reveals State Variations in the U.S. Science and Engineering Labor Force -: A new database created by the Population Reference Bureau reveals geographic differences in characteristics of people working in the science and engineering (S ) labor force. The data, from the Census Bureau's 2005 American Community Survey, highlight state-level variations in earnings, education, and the participation of minorities, women, and foreign-born workers in the high-tech economy.
Who Is Unemployed? Factors Affecting Unemployment Among Individuals with Doctoral Degrees in Science and Engineering: A 1998 special report from the NSF Division of Science Resource Studies.
Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering: Fall 1996: This is the latest in a series of NSF reports on graduate students and postdocs being educated in science and engineering at American universities. It contains more data than you probably want to know.
The Best and Brightest for Science: Is There a Policy Problem Here?: by William Zumeta, College of Education, University of Washington. The number of students applying to graduate school has decreased substantially over the last 5 years, with particularly large declines in the number of students with high GRE scores. Moreover, the GRE scores of grad school applicants are dropping across most disciplines.
Professor Romer Goes to Washington: Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2001 (page A1). "Paul Romer is a big-name Stanford University economist who holds the refreshingly naive view that if you explain a good idea to enough important people, they'll do something. So he came to Washington last week, not for black-tie inaugural receptions, but to talk up a scheme to ensure that life is better for future generations. The problem, as Mr. Romer sees it, is that the U.S. isn't turning out enough scientists and engineers to make discoveries that will pay off in 50 years."
The Science Education Myth: BusinessWeek, October 26, 2007. "Forget the conventional wisdom. U.S. schools are turning out more capable science and engineering grads than the job market can support."
Can There Be a Shortage of Ph.D. Physicists?: Brian B. Schwartz, APS and CUNY Brooklyn, Presented at the Winter 1971 APS Meeting. (Requires Adobe Acrobat)
UC Announces Plans to Add 11,000 Graduate Students: "In a move designed to maintain its leadership role in California's economy, the University of California announced plans today (Nov. 16) to help meet the state's future workforce needs by adding 11,000 graduate students to the 10-campus UC system over the next decade."
[Math] Job Market Brightens for Applicants: Notices of the AMS, April, 2001. "Over the past two or three years the job market in mathematics has improved dramatically for applicants. Employers are watching with concern as numbers of applications decrease, but they too seem more satisfied, for the easing of the job crisis has translated into a higher proportion of suitable applicants." (Requires Adobe Acrobat)
Employment Preferences and Outcomes of Recent Science and Engineering Doctorate Holders in the Labor Market: An NSF study that compares where recent PhD's wanted to work with where they actually ended up working. "Overall, 39.5 percent of employed recent doctorate holders obtained employment in a sector different from what they most desired when they began their doctoral programs."
Educating the Next Generation of Californians in a Research University Context: Workforce projections and job market trends for graduate and profressional degree recipients from University of California's Graduate and Undergraduate Enrollment Planning Through 2010 report.
Tenure Gridlock: When Professors Choose Not To Retire: New York Times, Feb. 16, 2000, special section on retirement.
Tech's Major Decline: College Students Turning Away From Bits and Bytes, by Ellen McCarthy, Washington Post, Tuesday, August 27, 2002, Page E01. "The tech industry's financial problems are enough to bankrupt the dreams of some fair-weather students. But now there's another consequence of the tech bust: Enrollment growth in undergraduate computer science departments has come to a halt."
Sloan Foundation Grants for Research on the US Science and Engineering Workforce - Second Round: The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is pleased to announce the second round of its small grants program to support creative research on the U.S. workforce and labor markets in science and engineering (“S ”). The due date for submissions will be November 17, 2008.
Sloan Foundation Grants for Research on the US Science and Engineering Workforce: The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is pleased to announce a new small grants program to support creative research on the U.S. workforce and labor markets in science and engineering. Depending on the number and quality of proposals received, this grant program will provide up to 10 research grants, selected on the basis of a peer review process. Grant budgets requested cannot exceed a total of $45,000, though we expect that most will be smaller than this ceiling. The first grant application deadline is April 7, 2008.
Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering: National Science Foundation: "This site provides data on the participation of women, minorities, and persons with disabilities in science and engineering education and employment. The data are organized by topic and are presented in tables, graphics, and spreadsheets for downloading."
The Physics Job Market: From Bear to Bull in a Decade: Physics Today, April, 2001. "In their December 1993 Physics Today article*, Kirby and Czujko described the job market for young physicists as bleak. What a difference eight years makes!"
"Supply and Salary Adjustments to the Changing Market for Physicists": Harvard labor market economist Richard Freeman's insightful analysis of the labor market for physicists.
Realities of the Physics Job Market: by Roman Czjuko. Valuable overview of the job market for physics Ph.D.s. Lots of statistics.
What Is The Debt Burden Of New Science & Engineering Ph.D.s?: NSF Issue Brief 98-318. "This issue brief discusses the indebtedness of new doctoral recipients resulting from their undergraduate and/or graduate education." Indebtedness rates are increasing. Over half of US citizen S&E Ph.D.s report debt at graduation; 32% of new U.S. citizen Ph.D.s report having at least $10,000 in debt; 17% have over $20,000 in debt.
Educators' Bad Math: by Peter Brimelow, Forbes Magazine, May 31, 1999. "The people who manufacture doctorates should take a graduate course in supply and demand."
WebCASPAR: This fairly easy to use site provides a wealth of data on the American S&T enterprise. In particular, it tracks degree recipients and students in science and engineering, with breakdowns available by field, school, year, etc. It is a great resource for anyone who wants real data to support their policy arguments.
Speakout: Age bias, cost-shifting hurt EEs: by Gene Nelson, EE Times, September 29, 1997. "A fundamental (inexpensive) employer action has been to ensure a glut of scientists and engineers by having different organizations falsely claim a "looming shortage" of them. This is merely a smoke screen for the employer's real intent of age discrimination."
Roach College, USA: What Ph.D. students really have to fear.: Slate Magazine, May 29, 2006. "Graduate students tend to be paranoid about aspects of their careers that are largely under their control: Will I ever finish my studies? Will I sufficiently impress my adviser? But if new research for academic economists holds up, students should also be freaked out by a factor they can do nothing about: the strength of the job market at the precise time they enter it."
From Rumors to Facts: Career Outcomes of English Ph.D.s: Results from the Ph.D.'s-Ten Years Later Study, by Maresi Nerad and Joseph Cerny. "For over 20 years the crisis in the academic job market for humanities Ph.D.s has been lamented. If there are so few prospects in academia, where have all the Ph.D.s gone?" Requires Adobe Acrobat.
Top 10 Actions Which Will Help Solve the Oversupply Problem for Ph.D. Physicists: Brian B. Schwartz, CUNY Brooklyn.
TCS Daily - How Wal-Mart Is Like Academia: The academic market is tight, so universities have adopted virtually the same attitude toward aspiring professors as Wal-Mart does to prospective stockers.
What is Happening to Academic Employment of Scientists and Engineers?: NSF Issue Brief 98-312. "This Issue Brief discusses changes in the composition of science and engineering doctorate holders employed in academia over the period 1991-95." Total faculty positions are down, full-time non-faculty positions and postdocs are up. In 1995, 21% of all S&E PhDs employed in academia were part-time, up from 12% in the early 1970's.
A shortage of science talent: "As biotech firms expand in Boston area, a tight market for specialized workers worries smaller firms." MSNBC, June 10, 2002.
Employment of Recent Doctoral Graduates in S&E: Results of Professional Society Surveys: A 1998 report from the Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology.
Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology (CPST): CPST is a nonprofit corporation whose membership includes leading professional societies, corporations, institutions, and individuals concerned with advancing public understanding of professionals in science and technology, their roles, education, and employment.
1997 AMS-IMS-MAA Annual Survey: Employment figures for the 1997 math Ph.D.s, from the January 1998 Notices of the AMS. Requires an Adobe Acrobat reader.
Project on the Economics of Advanced Training: at Harvard University / National Bureau of Economic Research. PEAT is an attempt to bring the tools of economic theory to bear on the labor markets for those with advanced technical training such as chemists, bio-medical researchers, physicists, mathematicians, economists, software engineers and other related professionals.
The Supply of Information Technology Workers in the United States: A study from the Computing Research Association "to improve the understanding of the supply of and demand for information technology (IT) workers in the United States, and the surrounding contextual issues." Contains many sensible recommendations.
Ph.D. Production: A Global Perspective: by W. R. Klemm, The Scientist, January 2000. "How many science and engineering Ph.D.s can a nation use and support? Does the United States have a glut, or is it about to have one? What price is a nation able and willing to pay for producing Ph.D.s? What is the relationship between a nation's economy and its production of Ph.D.s? In trying to answer such questions, I examined 1998 data in a variety of countries from three perspectives: (1) Total number of Ph.D.s produced, (2) Per capita production of Ph.D.s, (3) Per capita production, adjusted to U.S. dollar purchasing power. These comparisons provided a few surprises that might stimulate some rethinking of national science policy regarding support for Ph.D. training."
A Sobering Assessment of the Physics Ph.D. Job Market: History, Current Status, Future Directions, and the Responsibility of the Physics Community. Brian Schwartz, APS and CUNY Brooklyn, August, 1993. (Requires Adobe Acrobat)
Should the Government Subsidize Supply or Demand in the Market for Scientists and Engineers?: by Paul Romer, NBER Working Paper Series. Stanford economist Paul Romer on the funding of graduate students.
What do astrophysics and the world's oldest profession have in common?: "In the present paper I want to tell of my impressions about the world of research in astrophysics, which I know from close observation. I see with certain pessimism the actual state of astrophysics, as well as of other sciences with similar problems. There are many charms in the profession, as many charms as in love, but not when they are in the service of mercantile aims."
Changing Career Paths in Science and Engineering: An interesting set of papers on the science job market from a 2001 CPST conference.
At what rate are physics departments hiring early career physicists?: APS News, February 1998.
Commission on Professionals in Science & Technology (CPST): Source for data on the education and employment of scientists and engineers since 1953; CPST members are professional societies, R&D-intensive corporations, academic institutions, foundations, and individuals
Early Returns of 1997 CGS/GRE Survey Reveal Second Year of Graduate Enrollment Decreases: "Analysis of preliminary results of the 1997 CGS/GRE Survey of Graduate Enrollment indicates that the overall enrollment decreases seen for the first time in 1996 have continued in 1997. With U.S. unemployment rates at near record lows, new bachelor’s-degree recipients—particularly in technical fields—have abundant job opportunities and appear to be opting for immediate employment rather than graduate education."
Healthy Economy Yields Even Lower Unemployment Rate for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: NSF Issue Brief, April 15, 1999. "Reflecting the robust economy, the overall unemployment rate for U.S. doctoral scientists and engineers (S&Es) in 1997 was estimated at 1.2 percent, a significant decrease from the 1993 rate of 1.6 percent."
Employment Trends Among Scientists and Engineers with Graduate Degrees: A National Academy study of where Ph.D.s end up after graduation. The data are relatively old (1991), but they show a rosy employment picture up to that time.
The PhD Factory: Training and Employment of Science and Engineering Doctorates: by Charles Goldman and William Massy. "Is it possible that the United States is producing too many PhDs even in light of rapid changes in science and technology? Based on new research exploring the training and employment of science and engineering PhDs, The PhD Factory predicts that academia will produce an average 20% to 24% annual excess of new PhDs."
Salaries for new CalTech PhDs: Salaries offered to and accepted by CalTech PhDs in academia and industry by discipline. Very interesting info.
AAU/AGS Project for Research on Doctoral Education: "The AAU/AGS Project focuses on understanding the forces that affect the flow of doctoral student talent from admission to completion or departure from programs. The research activities of the AAU/AGS Project are intended to address the needs of institutional- and national-level policy makers for enhanced information about graduate education."

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Labor Market for PhDs